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04/07/2007 - Bridgeview, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New England Revolution and the Chicago Fire have a bit of a history, especially recent history. Last season, the Revolution knocked the Fire out of the playoffs in a penalty kick shootout in the Major League Soccer Eastern Conference semifinals.
Now, to open their 2007 MLS regular season, Chicago has a chance for a little revenge as it hosts New England at 8:30 p.m. at Toyota Park Saturday night. It will be the 28th meeting between the two teams with New England holding the advantage, 12 wins to 10.
"First and foremost, our minds are to really get a good start to the season, it really doesn't matter who we play in the opening game," Fire head coach Dave Sarachan said. "Our guys are really chomping at the bit to get the season underway. Obviously playing New England in the first game adds a little bit to it.
"You know we don't really like one another as teams so there is a real rivalry that has been created and our guys certainly remember the last team they faced last season. It is not really something we talked about. I wouldn't say that it is going to be that much of an added motivation but clearly the level of concentration will be up knowing it is against the team that knocked us out of the playoffs," Sarachan added.
Chicago is also excited to be opening its season at home after starting 2006 on the road for the first two-plus months of the season while its new soccer specific stadium, Toyota Park, was being completed.
"Last year was really a unique year as we were on the road for 2 1/2 months to start, so having a game right off the bat is exciting for us," Sarachan said. "(The temperature) is supposed to be in the high 20s (Saturday) night and I am hoping that won't deter too many from coming to the game but I anticipate a good showing. It doesn't matter in terms of numbers, the quality of the fans here is so great so whatever the numbers should be, we are going to have a real exciting building (Saturday) night."
Fire faithful are also on a bit of a high after the team filled its designated player slot this past week with Mexican legend Cuauhtemoc Blanco who is expected to join the team on July 1.
Until Blanco joins the squad, Chicago is hoping to get some offense from young players like Justin Mapp, Chris Rolfe, Chad Barrett and Brazilian Thiago. That should be no easy task this week with Matt Reis - one of the better goalkeepers in MLS - in the opposing net.
"We think we have the firepower that can get goals for us," Sarachan said. "It is like the old joke that famous Yankee player said, 'Hit it where they ain't.' Shoot it where he can't get it is one way to look at it. If our guys get good looks at goal, obviously it is going to take a great shot to beat Matt Reis so we have to be patient to finish those opportunities. He is capable of big saves so hopefully we can really pick our spots and keep a good amount of possession and when we do take strikes at goal, we have to make sure they are good enough to beat a good goalie like Reis."
Up top, the Fire will look to shut down the New England offensive attack by limiting the chances of former MLS MVP Taylor Twellman and company.
"Clearly it all revolves around Taylor," Sarachan said. "He is a guy who is arguably as good a target guy as there is in this league. In the history of our games, he finds space and finds a way to get chances at goal and if we can minimize that to zero that gives us a much better opportunity to keep a clean sheet. They rely on a lot of service and if we can take away that strength and deal with guys like Taylor it gives us a real opportunity to keep them off the board."
Longtime captain Chris Armas and fellow midfielder Diego Gutierrez will team up with defenders CJ Brown, Jim Curtin, Logan Pause and Osei Telesford to try and shut down the New England attack.
"We obviously want to get off on the right foot and make it an entertaining game in game one and our attacking players are responsible for that," Sarachan said. "We just hope that at the end of the day our number is higher than their number on the scoresheet."
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The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
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