Soriano's two-run homer lifts Cubs over Brewers

Baseball Betting Lines

04/11/2009 - Milwaukee, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Alfonso Soriano hit a two-run homer in the top of the ninth inning and the Chicago Cubs held on to edge the Milwaukee Brewers, 6-5, in the second of a three-game series at Miller Park.

Soriano finished 2-for-5 with three RBI and two runs scored, while Kosuke Fukudome had a solo homer, double and two RBI for the Cubs, who dropped a 6-5 decision in the series opener. Aramis Ramirez added a solo shot in the win.

Carlos Zambrano started and pitched to a no-decision for the Cubs. The big right-hander allowed three runs on seven hits with seven strikeouts and three walks over six innings. Aaron Heilman (1-0) earned the win after going 1 2/3 innings without giving up a run and striking out three. Carlos Marmol notched his first save of the year.

Prince Fielder hit a two-run homer and J.J. Hardy knocked in a pair for Milwaukee, which lost three of four to start the season.

Dave Bush started and went 6 1/3 innings, giving up three runs on six hits with five strikeouts. Carlos Villanueva (1-1) was tagged with the loss after giving up two runs on as many hits in the ninth inning.

With the game deadlocked at 3-3 after 6 1/2 innings, Milwaukee put two on the board in the bottom of the seventh. Angel Guzman started the inning for the Cubs and retired the first batter before issuing back-to-back walks to Corey Hart and Ryan Braun. Neal Cotts replaced Guzman and the lefty promptly issued a free pass to Fielder before being lifted for Heilman.

Hardy then stepped in and laced a two RBI single up the middle, putting the Brewers in front 5-3. Mike Cameron followed by striking out and in the process, Fielder got tagged out while trying to advance to third when the ball got away from Cubs catcher Koyie Hill.

Ramirez's solo homer to left in the eighth got the Cubs to within a run. Then in the ninth pinch hitter Reed Johnson reached on a one-out single and Soriano jumped on a first-pitch changeup from Joey Gathright and hammered it over the left-field wall to put the Cubs in front 6-5.

In the bottom of the ninth, Marmol came on and gave up a one-out base hit to Hart, but recovered to strikeout Braun and Fielder to end the game.

Fielder gave the Brewers a 2-0 lead in the third when the burly slugger belted a 1-2 fastball over the right-field fence, scoring Hart, who singled.

Fukudome's solo blast in the top of the fourth got the Cubs to within a run, but Milwaukee regained a two-run lead in the home half when Rickie Weeks' RBI single brought home Bill Hall.

The Cubs made it a 3-2 game in the top of the sixth when Fukudome hit a double down the right-field line that plated Soriano, who led off the frame with a two-base hit.

Chicago knotted things in the top of the seventh on Soriano's run-scoring fielders' choice.

Game Notes

Chicago won nine of its 16 meetings with the Brewers last season, including five of the seven matchups held in Milwaukee.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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